| Contract | Net (Large Specs) | 2y percentile | Read | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | +2,468 | 88.8% | long-heavy extreme | 2026-09-15 |
| USD | +10,593 | 76.6% | neutral zone | 2026-09-15 |
| Level | Size | Note | Expiry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83000 | medium | Deribit OI 557 BTC (~$47m) | 2026-09-21 |
| 82500 | medium | Deribit OI 423 BTC (~$35m) | 2026-09-21 |
| 82000 | medium | Deribit OI 399 BTC (~$33m) | 2026-09-21 |
As of 21 September 2026, our multi-factor bias score for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is -2.34 - a SHORT lean. The score combines range stretch (1W and 3M), CFTC COT positioning, seasonality and macro momentum.
Large speculators are net +2,468 contracts on BTC (88.8% of the 2-year range). Extremes above 85% or below 15% often precede reversals.
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VIX 14.81 (6.2% 1y percentile) · Macro 20d: oil 11.7% · gold -4.9% · USD 1.61%
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