| Contract | Net (Large Specs) | 2y percentile | Read | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | +3,904 | 100.0% | long-heavy extreme | 2026-07-28 |
| USD | +17,197 | 93.5% | long-heavy extreme | 2026-07-28 |
| Level | Size | Note | Expiry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66000 | medium | Deribit OI 397 BTC (~$26m) | 2026-08-09 |
| 63000 | medium | Deribit OI 553 BTC (~$36m) | 2026-08-10 |
| 67000 | medium | Deribit OI 540 BTC (~$35m) | 2026-08-10 |
As of 08 August 2026, our multi-factor bias score for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is -1.62 - a mild short lean. The score combines range stretch (1W and 3M), CFTC COT positioning, seasonality and macro momentum.
Large speculators are net +3,904 contracts on BTC (100.0% of the 2-year range). Extremes above 85% or below 15% often precede reversals.
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VIX 15.15 (11.2% 1y percentile) · Macro 20d: oil 11.0% · gold 2.8% · USD -1.04%
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